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Read more journal entries: Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Day 4 | Day 5 | Day 10 Our best chase day was our last one. Today, we zigzagged around at least three supercell thunderstorms in eastern Colorado, taking about five hours. We saw at least seven wall clouds – that may be conservative. Everything was spinning. I saw things I’ve never seen before. It was a spectacular chase day. But alas, we saw no tornado. Twice, we had to bail out of storms that seemed ready to drop one. This shows the commitment to safety the trip leaders, Dave Carroll and Maria Floyd, have. Storm chasing is not a daredevil activity, or at least, it’s not supposed to be. It’s serious science, to forecast severe potential, to observe storms at close range and report any severe weather we see to the National Weather Service. Some of the stuff I saw today was more spectacular than some tornadoes I’ve seen. Like, for instance, the blue-green “doughnut” spinning in the sky over a field, winds, clouds and dusty spiraling toward it. We watched this thing form and then spin there, thinking it might spin out a tornado at any moment. But we had to run away from it when wind, rain and hail began closing in on us from the southwest. Racing away from the outflow of this thunderstorm was quite an experience, with many frighteningly beautiful, or beautifully frightening, cloud formations rushing along the gust front blowing south from the storm. We stopped a couple of times to shoot photos, but had to keep going. We chanced into a spinning wall cloud that had apparently been detected as circulation by weather service radar, prompting a tornado warning. But the gust front from the storm we just left was chasing us, so we had to leave this one, too, and retreat west. Colorado’s widely spaced road network prevented us from chasing these storms as effectively as we like, but safety is the first priority. Later, we went after another wall cloud south of Interstate 70, but got cut off by rain and hail. We got pinged by a few minutes of very small hail, the only hail we had been in since our first day chasing. It wasn’t bad though, and neither were the gravel roads. It hadn’t rained enough right where we were to make them extremely muddy, though our vans look like they’ve been off-roading, splattered with some mud. Words and even photos can't do justice to these powerful storms we saw today. Standing there beholding one of these things, I realized that we just don’t have storms like this back home in Virginia. We have some rough storms on occasion, yes, but not a beast that almost seems to be breathing. The unobstructed Plains offer such a great viewing point, and also allow these mighty storms to spin up into their full fury without the disturbances of mountains and ridges. I love the Blue Ridge Mountains and will be glad to see them again, but I will miss the Plains after these great days out here, even the “busted” chases. I’ll be back, someday, to chase the wind again. Day 9 We needed today really bad. We enjoyed a nice day of storm chasing in northeast Colorado. Nothing exceptionally spectacular, but we did see good solid supercells with wall clouds. It lifted the morale of the group quite a bit after 5 days of nary a storm. It was an amazing sight to me to watch a storm of that magnitude over the spaciousness of Colorado. The size of the storm, combined with the openness of the terrain and the lack of haze, causes it to fill one's entire field of vision. At once, I could see the wall cloud trying to spin up something, the gust front picking up wads of dust (spinning up at least one "gustnado"), the backsheared anvil cloud, and even other thunderstorms in the distance. We did a good job today of positioning ourselves in the ideal place to see a tornado develop, if one had. We were to the southeast of the storm, and had a good view of the wall cloud at a safe distance. It didn't drop, but we would have been in the right spot had it done so. The gravel roads we traveled north of Stratton, Colo., were really well groomed. We never got in anything more than light rain, and absolutely no hail. A good thing -- some vehicles we saw later were heavily dented. Back at Goodland, Kan., in the evening, we got clobbered by some storms after they had grown together into a line. Winds whipped across the Plains into this town, probably some gusts over 60 mph. Dave Carroll said the entire second floor of the Comfort Inn we are staying in vibrated during the wind. Maria Floyd, Seth Price and I were out in town, going to the Wal-Mart for supplies. We walked against a stiff wind, and once when we were inside, the entire metal frame of the building rattled. Most of the rest of the gang was in Taco Johns during the wind. Maria, Seth and I ended up there for a late-night "dinner" as they were about to ready to run through the storm back to the motel nearby. There are lots and lots of chasers here in Goodland. At least five teams in our motel. Across the road, there are two Doppler-on-Wheels trucks -- big flatbeds with radar equipment on them. They haul those big things to positions close to supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes to record data on their development. It's hard enough to get two vans near such as a storm. I can't imagine doing that in two big trucks. Our last chasing day will either be Tuesday or Wednesday. Tuesday's looks pretty good, as this same general area will likely again see thunderstorms, and the atmospheric setup could even be better for severe storms. Wednesday, the scene shifts to the south, and it looks slight. If that holds true, we may punt that day and begin the long trip back to Virginia. So if we're going to see a tornado, it probably needs to be Tuesday. For the sake of these students who have never seen one, I'd like for us to see one -- in open country, of course. I'd like to see one, too, but I've seen mine. This trip has been a blast for me whether we see one or not. Today, we traveled diagonally across Nebraska to set up in southwest corner of the state. Here, we'll patrol the High Plains region from panhandle to panhandle -- the Nebraska panhandle to the Texas panhandle -- for the next three days in hopes of catching at least one supercell thunderstorm. What we caught last Tuesday wasn't really a supercell, but a developing line. It was still impressive, with the roating wall cloud we saw. We got into more hail than we wanted to, but fortunately that hail was slushy, as the storm didn't have enough push to throw raindrops high enough to freeze them rock-solid. (This is why we had little or no damage to our vehicles as a result of the hail.) Since then, we've watched the cap stop convection cold in its tracks on three days, and then came Saturday's mega-bust when the cap again held just long enough to keep major storms from firing. Personally, I feel good to be back on the High Plains. This is where I want to be, anyway, for its open spaces and great visibility. I feel less of a moral quandary wanting to see a tornado out here, for one could be on the ground for 50 miles out here in some places and not hit a single structure. We'll see if we have anything to see, now. The group is a bit frustrated but taking things with good humor. It's beyond our power to change the weather., so we'll roll with it. The setup up out here isn't perfect, but we have moisture returning from the south, some insability diving through the jet stream, good daytime heating, and the potential for storms to develop on the Rockies and move eastward into more favorable circumstances. The Storm Prediction Center is suggesting a chance of supercells and tornadoes. Last year's group saw a tornado, but not until the last day, and had four busted chase days along the way. The weather pattern has been far less favorable for big storms this year than it was last year, but with each new day, there's a chance. It only takes one big one to make us forget the busts. Day 7 Storm chasing is a difficult hobby. We've been out here a full week now, and we've caught only one storm -- but I could definitely get addicted to this. Today, we busted again. This was a pretty hard bust to take, for we weren't chasing a marginal opportunity like the first three days this week, one of which panned out. Instead, this looked to be a solid chance of severe weather, including supercells and tornadoes, based on a large number of factors. But nothing fired. We chased some cumulus clouds that had a chance to develop near where Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska touch -- we were in all three of those states at different times this afternoon. But all we got was rain showers some beautiful shots of the sun peeking through the clouds. There's some joy in seeing that, and if you're storm chasing, you better find ways to entertain yourself other than wall clouds and funnels. Even the best storm chasers regularly bust, and very rarely actually see a tornado. It's just not easy to find these things. I've been struck by so many different landscapes during this trip. The Plains gets a rap for boring sameness, but it's simply not true. The fields of southeast South Dakota had such a striking contrast amid the scattered sun rays and gray rain shafts this evening. It was much different than the rolling pastures of northeast Nebraka we had driven through less than an hour earlier. The people of the Midwest, by and large, are extremely friendly, and very interested in what we're doing. One trucker named Julian Daly spent many minutes visiting with Dave Carroll and Seth Price this afternoon, mostly about radio equipment. Other truckers came by to talk about the weather, or just to chat. There were a couple of weird ones, too, but we're finding that more than 95 percent of the folks out there greet us warmly. It has been a frustrating trip so far purely for storm chasing. It's been a frustrating season in the chasers' community, as forecasts have gone awry time after time, with severe weather popping up where and when it's not supposed to and not occurring when and where it is suppose to. Our group is good-humored, taking it all with a jokes and laughter, but there is a bit of frustration beginning to show. The van I was in went dead silent after today's busted chase. We've rearranged our lives for a few weeks in order to do this, and we're not finding what we came here for. But with each new day there's hope -- except travel days, like Sunday will be, when our whole objective is to get somewhere to set ourselves up for later days. We're headed West toward the High Plains of western Nebraska and eastern Colorado today to see if we can find some storms there Monday through Wednesday. It looks pretty good to see something there. Then we'll head back to Virginia. I love the Blue Ridge, but I'll miss the Plains.
Today was strictly a travel day to set us up in position for possible severe weather on Saturday. We had blue skies and sunshine all the way from Emporia to here, passing through eastern Kansas, northwest Missouri, southwest Iowa and then across a toll bridge over the Missouri River into far eastern Nebraska. The most exciting thing today was our evening meal at Amarillo Barbecue next to our motel here in Bellevue, a southern suburb of Omaha near Offutt Air Force Base. I had the smoked catfish with beans and corn on the cob. Very tasty. We figured this is as close as we'll get to Amarillo, Texas, which is a common destination for storm chasers this time of year. Not this year, with high pressure building in the heat in that area. What's setting up on Saturday looks pretty interesting. We have a cold front sinking southeastward, strong heating and instability, deep moisture and strong high-level shear, which is wind blowing in different directions at different layers of that atmosphere. These factors appear to be coming together over a region along the Missouri River from Kansas City north into the eastern Dakotas. We're in the center of that area, and we'll be carefully studying where to go on Saturday. One issue we have to consider is crossing the Missouri River. There are only so many bridges, and should a storm cross the river, we'd be faced with following it. So it's important that we plant ourselves on the side of the river where the storms initiate, or if they form in extreme eastern Nebraska, to put ourselves in such a position east of the river in Iowa to quickly intercept them. Also, we will not chase into metro areas. That includes Omaha and Lincoln in this area. We'll bypass those areas and re-intercept the storm on the other side, if necessary. So many things to consider. I think I'll leave it for now and get a good night's rest for what could be an intense day. Day 5 Kansas is not all flat, no matter what you've heard people say. It also doesn't have tornadoes every day. Today was a fine example debunking both of those myths, as we rode under deep blue skies with a few puffy white cumulus clouds through the ruggedly gorgeous Flint Hills of southeastern Kansas. The atmosphere was capped again today, so thunderstorms didn't fire as we thought might happen. We had low expectations today, as conditions were far from perfect, but we thought something would go, somewhere. It didn't. On a storm-chasing trip you have to learn to go with the flow, and be prepared for lots of riding. I took in countryside in parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, through which I had never traveled before, and I was stunned by its beauty and its variety. Such lovely green hills, rolling into forever. "I'd love to live out here," Maria Floyd has mused more than once, surveying the wide-open views of the Plains states. Some people find the Plains boring, but I think it has its own charm, with or without supercell thunderstorms. This is a land of big weather, with lots of severe weather, summer heat waves and winter blizzards. Not for the faint of heart. Back to storm chasing: We won't be chasing Friday, unless something unexpected pops up on our travel route. We're using the day to get in position for the weekend, which has some promise for storms in Nebraska, the Dakotas, into Minnesota and Iowa. We'll go after any of those areas that we think offer the best chance of seeing supercell thunderstorms. Really, this activity is "supercell chasing" more than "tornado chasing." We feel like we ought to be able to find a few supercells in a 10-day period in the Plains, but whether or not we see a tornado is dependent on far too many things -- atmospheric and logistical -- to make it a stated goal. We'll take it merrily, though, when it happens. The mood of the group is pretty good, considering we've had two busted days in a row and will have a third non-chase day. Catching a storm on Tuesday has helped buoy the mood through these two tough days, so a lot of folks have resorted to humor rather than any negative emotions to deal with it all. Perhaps, for educational purposes, it's best we don't have a prolific chase trip. This is more like storm chasing really is, with down days and busts, with long drives to try and catch new expected outbreaks that may or may not happen. The students and everyone following them are learning what chasing is really like. I'm learning right along with them. Day 4 Let's talk some more about Tuesday, first, before we get to Wednesday's bust. It is possible that we did in fact see a weak tornado on Tuesday in Nebraska. Some members of our group pointed out a dark column below a lowered cloud base as we moved north toward Lexington, Nebraska. "Is that a tornado?" Ethan Knocke, the only person on board with a meteorology degree, asked at one point. But Dave Carroll and I dismissed what he was seeing as a rain shaft, or a dark streak under a cloud indicating where the rain is falling. Some chasers located to our west got photographs of what appears to be a debris cloud of whirling dust near this point. Even if this were a tornado, it is not really the kind of classic supercell tornado we are looking for. So we are not counting it in the twister tally. Quite likely, it was more of a landspout-type twister, which is a weak funnel that can form even non-thunderstorm clouds on occasion. Also, it could have been a "gustnado," which is a whirl formed by cool outflow winds developing a spin as they hit warm air ahead of a storm. Again, this is not what we've come to observe, but it is interesting to note. Now, on to Wednesday, which was even less of what we came to see. What appeared to be a somewhat promising day for thunderstorm development in southeast Kansas did not pan out. The cap, or warm air layer that inhibits thunderstorm clouds from rising high in the sky, was too strong, so the storms didn't develop as expected. So we were left at a convenience store in Wellington, Kan., looking at clouds trying to rise, then fall, then diminish altogether. The vans got real quiet after this, filled with boredom and frustration. This is part of storm chasing, too. The storms finally did go, in a much reduced way, about sunset after we'd already parked for the night at Blackwell, Okla. The biggest storm occurred near Wichita, Kan., still not a huge one. We wouldn't have tried to chase a storm across a metro area, anyway, Too dangerous. We learned later that tornadoes had occurred in Iowa and Minnesota, which we could have got to if we had gone that way instead of down here. Second-guessing is part of this, too. For Thursday, we're probably going to be left looking for an isolated storm in southeast Kansas, and then we'll work our way back north for the weekend to see if anything goes in the northern Plains. A heat ridge is building into the southern Plains, so we could end up in Nebraska , Iowa or South Dakota trying to find where the best upper air dynamics are, in combination with some heating and moisture. Day 3 We thought we might get shafted in not seeing storms. We got shafted another way entirely. We got hail-shafted. After watching storm clouds grow from their very conception along a dryline in western Nebraska, we followed the storms as they developed north and east toward Lexington in central Nebraska. After many minutes of observing and photographing amazing storm structure along a prairie highway in Nebraska, we made a run south to avoid hail. But the hail shaft caught us. Hail up to the size of quarters pounded the vans furiously. Chase radio expert Seth Price reported the hail size -- at roughly ¾ inch of an inch, large enough to be considered severe -- to the National Weather Service in Hastings, Neb. A severe thunderstorm warning was issued based on the report. "It was intense," said chaser Beth Owens, a New River Community College student and Pulaski County High School graduate. "We couldn't go forward, we couldn't go backward. We'd get hit with it either way." After about four minutes of intense hail, the vans creeped forward again. But a short distance later, Carroll called out on the radio that he saw a hail shaft, or a white mass under a thunderstorm cloud, and didn't want to get into it again. The two vans simply pulled aside and watched the mighty storm -- which had morphed into a squall line rather than their preferred objective, an isolated supercell -- lumber across the road in front of them, near Lexington, Nebraska. About a half-hour later, the vans finally rolled south under a huge backshear anvil -- or the high top of a storm that high level winds have caused to form behind the storm as well as in front. The storm still dominated the skyline, with lightning bolts zipping and pieces of a rainbow trying to form, as the chasers regrouped in Lexington to decide what to do overnight. There appeared to be no conspicuous signs of damage to the vehicles. "It was really, really intense. The hail shaft was surprisingly powerful," said Jacob Carley, a Blacksburg High School graduate who is a freshman meteorology student at North Carolina-Asheville. "I wasn't expecting the rotation at all. I was pleasantly surprised." "Today will be a very interesting forecasting day," Carroll said at our morning briefing. The concern Tuesday was that there wouldn't be enough moisture, shear or upper-level dynamics for storms. But we got just enough of all three to have some storms. I give a lot of credit to Dave and to Ethan Knocke for looking at the models and picking southwest Nebraska as a target area. They say the potential for a bulge in the dryline -- or an eastward curve in the line that divides dry and moist -- and for a low pressure area to develop in southeast Colorado that could circulate winds back from the southeast rather than the due south. Either of these could create enough shear, or winds blowing at different directions in different layers of the atmosphere, for severe weather to develop. And some did. If we'd gone to southwest Kansas like some chasers were, we'd been left out in the dry. The storms we saw were not really ideal. They formed into a line, rather than individual, distinct supercells. But it gave many of these students an opportunity to see storm dynamics from start to finish in the unobstructed, less hazy world of the Great Plains. We didn't feel like getting very far after last night's storms, so we parked in Kearney, Neb., overnight. On Wednesday, we're likely to head south toward southeastern Kansas looking for more storms to fire from the same system that caused them to go up so strong in Nebraska. We could even see a few rotating supercells, unlike these storms of yesterday, which turned into a line. We're likely to get a break on Thursday or Friday, with no storms to chase in the Plains, before heading back up to the north for a new cold front plowing through this weekend. On across Missouri and into Kansas we rolled. Chasing the wind? We've found the wind. It's stretching the flags out full length from the south here on the High Plains. It's a bit chilly though, which doesn't make one think severe weather. But that south wind does play a big role in a potential severe weather event that is expected to develop on Tuesday. So the talk in the vans turned more and more to the business at hand, which is trying to figure out where exactly we need to plant on Tuesday to be within an hour's drive of a developing supercell thunderstorm. Somewhere in western Kansas or Nebraska was about as specific as we could nail it down. So we reached Salina, in central Kansas, and rested for the evening Our meeting Tuesday morning should be interesting. The scenario is that a fairly strong low pressure area is moving eastward out of Colorado, pulling a cold front below it. Also, and perhaps most importantly, a dryline is developing over western Kansas and Nebraska. It's along this dividing point between dry air from the west and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico where supercell thunderstorms typically develop. Strong southerly winds ahead of the low could bring also bring in more moisture and warmth on Tuesday, as well as increase the low level shear -- or winds blowing in different directions at different layers of the atmosphere -- that might cause the thunderstorms to begin rotating. But, limiting factors are that it's not very warm yet, the moisture isn't as thick as it could be, and the upper-level shear isn't impressive. But few chase days have everything on the plate before they begin. It's almost time to do what we've come here to do. Instead of sitting in the front of the van driven by Maria Floyd, where I'll be most of the trip, I chose to ride in the back of the van driven by Dave Carroll today. It was a little cramped, but not as bad as I expected. Anthony Phillips, who's about as tall as I am, sat beside me perfectly content with his knees resting against the seat in front of him. He even put a cap over his head and fell asleep. Anthony's ambition is to be a meteorologist, and from his command of forecast tools on the Internet, I'd say he's well on his way. Beth Owens and Amanda Worrell sat immediately in front of us, in the middle side. They are cousins. I asked them about being among the only three women on the trip. "It makes for interesting conversation," Amanda said. "By the end of the trip, we'll end up being like one of the guys," Beth said. Back at the motel in Illinois, an older gentleman walk up to the back of our van as Dave Carroll dug through the duffel bags to find his cell phone. Dick Waddell asked about the aerials on the roof. He said "aerials," not antennas. "We're going to go look for tornadoes," Dave said "This a good time for you to look for them, eh?" said Waddell, an affable New Zealander. He later said, "I hope you see one, and we don' t." Many, many people swiveled their heads to look at our vans as we rode down the highway today. Many gawk, but few ask. Dave's answer was a bit different, but still truthful, when a toll booth operator in Kansas asked about the antennas. "It's for radio equipment," he said. Day 1 A head in the clouds May 15, 2005 This is a trip like almost no other for the 9 young people (and we 3 older people, too), but it is still a trip. That means long hours on the road, cramped 6 per van. And it means finding ways to pass the time. Books, CD players, iPods. For me, though, it was just a chance to peacefully watch the green landscape of the Ohio Valley change from West Virginia's rugged ridges to Kentucky's smoothly undulating hills to Indiana's near-flatness. All of it under a blue sky with cottony clouds, and to the tune of driver Maria Floyd's eclectic collection of CD music ranging from Chicago to Montgomery Gentry. Looking at some of the cumulus towers over West Virginia, I pondered how our lives for the next 10 days would essentially be dictated by cumulus clouds. Where they grow tall is where we want to be. Where they are held short of their potential, that's where we don't want to be. *** The only chasing anyone on the team did today was to chase a frog. It was hopping across the picnic area of the rest area where we ate lunch in Kentucky. Some of them tried to corner it, but it hopped away. That rest stop, near Grayson, Ky., was the scene of an improbable convergence of storm chasers and cloggers, passing a few strange looks back and forth at one another. The storm chasers had just finished lunch and were getting in their vans when the cloggers began clacking a rehearsed number on the northeastern Kentucky concrete for an impromptu audience of dog-walkers and people in need of a restroom. Jeremy Swink didn't quite know what to make of it when he saw people of all ages at the rest stop wearing tie-dyed T-shirts with the word "Wizards" emblazoned on them. "I could have guessed 20 things they might have been doing, and tap-dancing wouldn t have been one of them," Swink said later over dinner at a Denny's restaurant in Dale, Ind. Two men who said they were associated with the "Wizards of Dance" clogging team out of Grayson, Ky., were equally puzzled by the tangle of antennas atop the vans. "I hope you catch one, but I hope one doesn't catch you," said George Huff when told that the vans were rigged for tornado chasing. *** We made it to Mount Vernon, Ill., Sunday night, and we're expecting to drive to Kansas or Nebraska today, in advance of potential severe weather on Tuesday. It looks like a low pressure trough pulling out of the Rockies might stir up some storminess the next few days, as it bumps into moisture returning on the back side of a high slipping east. That high pressure area has caused some unseasonably cool area in these parts. Here in Illinois, we were expecting a low near 40. The forecast doesn't look like it's going to give us anything, that we're going to have to work hard for any storms we see. That may mean driving hundreds of miles in a day just to be in position for a slight chance of severe weather the next day. Supercell thunderstorms unexpectedly erupted in western Nebraska tonight. Ethan Knocke, our student forecasting expert, showed them to me on an Internet radar site. It gives us some hope in what hasn't looked like such a great pattern for storms. I've barely had time to check the weather myself today, but I will before I finally doze off. We're up at 8 a.m. on Monday for a forecasting meeting in Dave Carroll's room. He gave a talk to the team there at 9 p.m. tonight, emphasizing chaser ethics -- especially, respecting the local people we encounter. "Consider yourselves ambassadors of Southwest Virginia," he reminded us. May 14, 2005 Late Saturday, it looks like we'll be headed in the general direction of Kansas on Sunday. We'll have a difficult decision to make: Do we swing south to pursue what could be a one-day burst of severe weather from southwest Kansas to the Texas Panhandle on Monday, or do we blow that off and position ourselves farther north for a couple of days of potential storms in the general area of Nebraska beginning Tuesday? Or, could we make both? Every day will present these kind of dilemmas from now on. Dave Carroll and I are a bit concerned about the possibility of a heat ridge building north from Texas through the week. At its extremes, this could really quash any storm potential -- or at least drive it far to the north. But forecast models are fickle beyond about 3 days. Oh, the things chasers worry about. |
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